追梦赤子心

A |     Russian President Vladimir Putin, on his first trip abroad since being indicted by the International Criminal Court in March, on Friday called on an alliance of former Soviet states to expand relations with non-Western countries.In an address to the Commonwealth of Independent States summit in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, Putin also defended Russia's invasion of Ukraine as an attempt to prevent war and blamed the United States as an integral cause of the current war between Israel and Hamas fighters. His comments did not break ground but the trip was significant as his first venture outside Russia and the occupied territories of Ukraine after the ICC indictment for alleged war crimes in Ukraine. The indictment would oblige any country that is party to the ICC to arrest him on their soil.The CIS consists of Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan and Armenia. Tajikistan has acceded to the ICC; Armenia, which recently approved joining the court, did not participate in the summit amid rising disputes with Russia. Putin told the CIS heads of state that “it is important to work together, together with like-minded people from other regions of the world — with the countries of the so-called world majority, the Global South, whose views are very close to us.”He deplored the conflict between Israel and Hamas, which broke out last week when Hamas launched raids on Israel, but took aim at the United States' role.“For many years, the one-sided line of the Americans led the situation further and further into a dead end," he said. “The large-scale tragedy that Israelis and Palestinians are now experiencing was a direct result of the failed U.S. policy in the Middle East.”On Ukraine, he reiterated Russia's contention that sending troops into the country was justifiable because of years of fighting between the Ukrainian military and separatist forces in the country's east.Our special military operation is not the beginning of a war, but an attempt to stop it," Putin contended.。

B |     　　明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡利（Neel Kashkari）周日表示，美国国债收益率上升并不构成担忧，也不太可能影响货币政策决定。不过，美国通胀短期内难以回落至目标水平，而关税和贸易冲突是“罪魁祸首”之一。

C | 　　卡什卡利在接受最新采访时说道：“种种迹象表明，美国国债市场运作正常，交易正常进行，市场流动性充足，因此我们可以将联邦基金利率作为降低通胀的主要政策工具。”　　上周，各期限的美国国债收益率均有所上升，基准10年期国债收益率收于4.73%左右。30年期国债收益率则维持在2007年以来的最高水平附近。　　卡什卡利指出，虽然目前的国债收益率相对于近期历史水平而言较高，但上世纪90年代的收益率要高得多。　　通胀持续　　美联储决策者将于9月举行下次会议。在7月的会议上，他们连续第五次维持利率不变。

D | 卡什卡利是三位反对“按兵不动”的官员之一，他倾向于加息25个基点，原因是担心通胀持续存在。

E | 　　他在最新采访中说：“我们需要更多数据，但我不想预先判断下次会议的结果。不过，我现在并不认为通胀会在短期内回落到目标水平。

F | ”　　与此同时，卡什卡利还警告称，如果美国和加拿大这两个历史上的盟友之间最近几天紧张的贸易局势持续下去，那么与加拿大的关税战可能会加剧美国的通货膨胀。　　“贸易方面反复拉锯的时间越长，就像伊朗冲突反复拉锯的时间越长一样，其影响和通货膨胀最终就会被延长和推迟。”他补充道。　　由于谈判代表未能就解决美加两国间贸易僵局达成协议， 美国于周六（22日）开始对加拿大产品加征50%的关税。美国贸易代表杰米森·格里尔周六表示，目前没有与加拿大方面进行新的谈判计划。　　与此同时，加拿大总理马克·卡尼承诺将对美国征收新的报复性关税，具体细节将于本周公布，计划于9月8日实施。

G | 预计关税将针对钢铁、乳制品、家电、农业设备、纸浆、纸张和电子产品。　　卡什卡利指出，加拿大是“美国的重要贸易伙伴”。2025年，两国商品和服务贸易额达到8800亿美元，加拿大成为美国第二大贸易伙伴，仅次于墨西哥。

H | 他还概述了美国当前的经济形势，指出过去五年高企的通货膨胀主要是由供应冲击造成的。　　“其中一个供应冲击就是贸易和关税冲突。” 他补充道。　　卡什卡利强调，除了与伊朗的战争等问题（他称这场战争是“通货膨胀的主要驱动因素”，因为能源对美国经济有着广泛的影响）之外，贸易动态也是“另一个需要密切关注的因素”。　　“因此，只要我们能够达到一种新的常态，即贸易动态所处的某种水平，一旦进入这种稳定状态，企业就可以进行调整，通胀的影响就可以逐渐消失。” 他说。（文章来源：财联社）。

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