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美联储减息在即：新加坡股市的最大赢家竟然是S REIT？_我的网站

A |     美国联邦储备局主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发表重要讲话，向市场传递了明确的降息信号。    TOPEKA, Kan. -- Child welfare officials investigated the family of a 5-year-old Kansas girl five times in the 13 months before she was raped and killed, but couldn't confirm allegations of neglect or drug use by her mother, and the family repeatedly declined offers of help, a report released Tuesday showed. The report by the state Department of Children and Families said in one case, the agency confirmed that the mother wasn't properly supervising Zoey Felix, but the girl was placed with her father and because of that, “No safety concerns were identified.” After receiving allegations in late August of drug use and lack of utilities in the home, child welfare officials made seven failed attempts to reach the family over the next month.On Oct. 2, Zoey died after fire crews couldn't resuscitate her at a gas station. Neighbors believe Zoey and her father had been camping in a grove of trees on a vacant lot nearby. Mickel Cherry, a 25-year-old homeless man, is charged with first-degree murder, rape and capital murder, and could face the death penalty. Authorities haven't said how Zoey died. “Zoey Felix’s death was an unacceptable tragedy," Gov. Laura Kelly said in a statement accompanying the Department of Children and Families' two-page summary of its interactions with the girl's family. Kelly said she plans to push for legislation next year that would expedite the release of information when a child dies of abuse or neglect. Her administration pushed for such a change in 2021, but a bill never passed. Currently, DCF only releases a summary of its involvement initially and can't do so until attorneys vet the document. Typically, the full case reports aren’t released until after the prosecution is completed, which can take well over a year.This has left an information vacuum in Zoey's case that was exacerbated Tuesday when a judge sealed the arrest affidavit that was used to support criminal charges against Cherry. Judge Christopher Turner concluded that releasing the records would jeopardize the safety of witnesses or sources or “cause the destruction of evidence.”Cherry’s attorney, Mark Manna, of the Kansas Death Penalty Defense Unit, has declined to comment. Cherry’s family didn’t respond to phone messages, and his Facebook friends described him as chronically homeless. Neighbors said Zoey wandered their neighborhood dirty and hungry. Several reported calling child welfare to express concerns. According to the summary from DCF, child welfare officials said they received the first tip about Zoey on Sept. 8, 2022, alleging poor conditions in the home and possible drug use in the presence of a child. The mother agreed to a drug screen and it came back negative, the agency said. The agency also said in its summary that Zoey's mother was working with court services. By then, she had been charged with domestic battery against her husband and teenage daughter, court records show. The DCF summary said the agency offered help to the family, but they declined and the case was closed. Another complaint alleging an unsupervised child was lodged with the agency on Nov. 8, 2002. Just six days earlier, Zoey's mother had called to report that the then 4-year-old was missing, a police incident report shows. Zoey was found unharmed a short time later.The DCF summary made no reference to Zoey's disappearance, and it was unclear whether that prompted the complaint. The summary said simply that the case was unsubstantiated and offers of help were denied. Later that month, Zoey's mother was arrested after crashing her car near a north Topeka bar while driving drunk with Zoey in the front seat. A sworn statement from a Topeka police officer, which also was released Tuesday, said the mother was “having difficulty standing upright, attempting to walk away with a small child.” He also wrote that in looking into her car, he saw two open bottles of vodka, one half-full and the other, three-quarters full. The officer said that in interviews, Zoey said her mother had been drinking from both bottles before and while driving.The officer wrote that the mother was uncooperative and, “She was taken to the ground in order to be handcuffed.”The DCF summary said welfare workers left Zoey in her father’s care; court records show he was living with a girlfriend at the time. Zoey's mother was jailed until March, when she pleaded guilty to felony aggravated battery and driving under the influence and was sentenced to probation. Zoey's father was evicted from his apartment in May. Another tip the agency received that month alleged there were no operating utilities in the mother's home, but the agency found the home to be “livable," with utilities, food and no signs of drugs. Again, the family declined services. Then on Aug. 29, another complaint alleged drug use and no utilities, prompting the seven failed attempts by the agency to contact the family in September. But during that time, police went to the home twice, once even tracking down Zoey and talking to her. But officers were told by Zoey’s father that she wasn’t living there, city spokeswoman Gretchen Spiker said. The second time police responded, an officer stood outside as belongings were retrieved from the house, a police report said. Police reports do not explain where Zoey, her sister, her father and Cherry went after that, but neighbors said they were living in a makeshift camp.Laura Howard, the top administrator for the Department for Children and Families, vowed to launch a thorough investigation.“We will take every step necessary," she wrote in a statement. DCF opened another investigation as a result of Zoey’s death.。

B | 他指出，随着通货膨胀率持续降温并接近2%的目标，现在是调整货币政策的适当时机。分析师普遍预计，新加坡房地产投资信托（S-REIT）将是最主要的受益者，同时，部分工业股和电信股也预计将在减息周期中表现出色。

C | 图源：FACEBOOK鲍威尔在8月23日的讲话中表示，他越来越有信心，通货膨胀率正持续降温，趋近2%的目标。他提到，美联储政策利率处于20年来的高位。期货市场预测，美联储将在9月17日和18日召开的会议上，决定降息25个基点，到今年底可能一共降息100个基点。资产负债率及利息支出较高的公司收益最大 马来亚银行证券公司的研究主管蒂兰·维克拉马辛格在一份报告中指出，高资产负债率和高利息支出的公司，最有可能因为利率下降，获益最多，他根据几项指标，针对市值高于5亿元的新加坡上市公司进行筛选。今年上半年，新翔集团、百汇生命产业信托，以及奕丰集团的利息成本增幅最大，都超过一倍。

D | 蒂兰认为，减息有助于扭转上述公司利息成本大增的趋势。图源：FACEBOOK就公司营运受到加息影响的程度而言，即息税折摊前盈利与净利息成本的比率，永泰控股、盈科亚洲拓展和鸿福实业受影响最显著。

E | 这些公司须负担的利息成本减少，将更有余力应付营运盈利的波动。以净利息成本与净收入的比率筛选，金光农业资源、星狮地产和翱兰集团的比率最高，分别是533%、430%和266%。蒂兰说：“利息成本较低，有助改善盈利。尽管如此，还是须留意，与固定利率挂钩的债务，需要时间重新定价，收益可能会滞后。

F | ”若持续大幅降息 S-REIT将进一步受惠 如果持续且大幅降息，S-REIT将在三方面受惠。

G | 首先，资本成本降低，从而提高公允价值；其次，S-REIT重启交易和资本循环；最后，吸引寻求收益的投资资金流入。凯德综合商业信托、城市发展酒店服务信托、凯德腾飞房地产信托、星狮地产信托、远东酒店信托，以及新达信托是蒂兰的首选。图源：FACEBOOK电信公司的股价向来与利率走势，有高度的反面关联性，即利率升高、股价下跌。经营全国光纤宽带网络的网联宽频信托有可能因减息获益。蒂兰认为，该股的股息收益率拥有很好的能见度，因而被他看好。工业股也因较低的资本成本，有助于提高按贴现现金流计算的合理估值。按此模式计算，蒂兰指出，从中期来看，偿债成本下降将提高企业利润，拥有强劲订单的新科工程，是他的优选股。美联储降息预期对新加坡市场的影响主要包括降低融资成本，刺激经济增长，增强金融市场流动性，以及提高新加坡房地产投资信托（S-REIT）等高利息成本公司的盈利能力。另外，由于新加坡与美国的利率关系，降息预期也将推动本地货币和股市的上涨。

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