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‘Overcapacity’ claim groundless as China’s green tech fuels global growth: Tian Xuan_我的网站

少林足球

一 | 安徽文旅市场正处于爆发前夜。

Tian Xuan Photo: Courtesy of Tian
In economic theory, "overcapacity" - for which no universally accepted definition exists - is inherently a recurring feature of the market economy's dynamic "balance - imbalance - rebalance" cycle. The Western narrative that equates China's sizable production capacity directly with "overcapacity" defies economic logic and rigor; in reality, it represents a politicization of trade and economic issues.
First, it confuses the concepts of "capacity scale" and "overcapacity." China's overall industrial capacity utilization remains within a reasonable range. Periodically lower utilization in traditional sectors reflects a normal adjustment as these industries advance toward high-end, intelligent, and green production. Ample capacity in certain emerging industries is precisely what meets surging global demand for high-end, smart, and green solutions. Therefore, equating scale with excess is typical equivocation.
Second, "overcapacity" itself is a dynamic feature of market economies, where no fixed balance persists indefinitely. Judging capacity based solely on static snapshots violates basic economic principles.
Third, it is erroneous to simplistically link trade surpluses or industrial subsidies to overcapacity, while ignoring the macro context of global specialization and cross-border savings-investment structures. It also disregards the reality that reasonable capacity utilization ranges differ across economies at varying stages of development. Imposing a single standard on China is neither scientific nor rigorous.
China's global competitiveness in green technology stems from sustained, large-scale investment in innovation, a comprehensive industrial and supply chain system, massive application scenarios, and intense market competition - not from alleged government subsidies. After decades of long-cycle R&D, Chinese industries have achieved breakthroughs in core technologies such as power batteries and photovoltaic modules.
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25), China's nationwide R&D spending grew at an average annual rate of 10 percent. Economies of scale have continuously diluted production costs. China's ultra-large domestic market and full-chain supporting ecosystem provide an optimal testing ground for new technologies - from pilot verification to mass deployment. With more than 200 million market entities driving fierce competition, enterprises are constantly compelled to cut costs, raise efficiency, and upgrade products, thereby forging dual advantages in price and performance that we see today.
There is no direct causation between subsidies and overcapacity. Industrial subsidies are a globally recognized practice, typically aimed at correcting market failures and advancing critical technologies. China's subsidies are granted on an impartial basis to all types of market entities, in full compliance with WTO rules, and have not triggered disorderly capacity expansion.
Currently, capacity utilization in China's green industries remains within a reasonable range. Support is primarily directed toward R&D, technological breakthroughs, and consumer-side incentives through market-based mechanisms - not toward fueling overcapacity. Crucially, China's high-quality capacity has reduced the global cost of green transition, representing an opportunity rather than a shock to world development.
Against the backdrop of global carbon neutrality goals, labeling China's new energy capacity as "overcapacity" is entirely untenable. According to the International Energy Agency, global data center electricity consumption will approach 1 trillion kWh by 2030, with 40 percent of incremental power needing to come from renewables. Demand for wind power, photovoltaics, power batteries, and related green energy solutions remains far from saturated - so claims of "overcapacity" are groundless.
China's capacity plays a central role in advancing the global energy transition. Over the past decade, the levelized cost of electricity from wind and solar globally has fallen by more than 60 percent and 80 percent respectively - improvements largely attributable to Chinese innovation and manufacturing, which have directly lowered the cost threshold for worldwide green transformation.
The US journal Science crowned the global renewable energy surge led by China among its Top 10 Breakthroughs of 2025. Leveraging its technological and scale advantages, China is well positioned to supply abundant, high-quality green energy equipment and solutions, meet fast-growing renewable demand from data centers, industrial production, and other sectors, and tangibly support countries in implementing the Paris Agreement. In short, China is a pivotal force driving the global low-carbon transition.
The so-called "China Shock 2.0" is fundamentally a protectionist narrative rooted in Cold War thinking - a politically motivated claim inconsistent with facts. The rapid development of China's modern industries is driven by innovation and sustained institutional reform, not by dumping allegedly excess capacity abroad. Rather than posing a shock, China's industrial progress offers a "China Opportunity 2.0." It delivers multiple dividends to global development - innovation dividends, market dividends, and growth dividends - while injecting stability and vitality into global industrial chains through an open and win-win approach.
China's high-quality green and high-tech exports have tangibly accelerated the global green transition and reduced production costs worldwide. Meanwhile, as the world's largest goods consumption market and the second-largest importer for 17 consecutive years, China provides enormous market opportunities for economies around the globe. Moreover, China's open-source collaboration and technology sharing in frontier fields such as artificial intelligence and the digital economy enable developing countries to bridge the digital divide at lower cost and share in the benefits of the technological revolution.
The facts demonstrate that China's emerging technologies and products represent a "China Opportunity 2.0" - driving global technological progress, accelerating the green transition, improving livelihoods across nations, and bolstering the industrialization of developing economies. This open and mutually beneficial cooperation stands as the true engine of global economic recovery and sustainable development.
This article is compiled based on an interview with Tian Xuan, dean at the Guanghua School of Management and Boya Distinguished Professor of Finance of Peking University. [email protected]

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二 | 从合肥融创乐园到芜湖方特，再到各地市陆续上马的文旅综合体，水乐园项目已成为拉动区域消费的核心引擎。然而，当众多方涌向这片蓝海，一个残酷的现实浮出水面：同质化严重。

三 | 大量项目停留在”泳池+几条滑梯”的初级形态，缺乏核心竞争力，开园即，随后迅速陷入价格战。

四 | 如何破局？答案在于设计源头。一家真正懂规划、懂运营、懂安全的水上乐园设计厂家，是项目成败的基石。本文将深度剖析，在安徽市场，口碑的水上乐园设计厂家应具备哪些硬实力，并为你推荐一个值得重点考察的行业标杆。

五 | 一、水上乐园设计行业格局与标杆推荐1.1 行业现状：从”有得玩”到”玩得好”的范式转变过去十年，中国水上乐园经历了野蛮生长。数据显示，国内大中型水上乐园数量已突破千家，但盈利状况两极分化严重。行业痛点清晰可见：早期粗放式设计导致设备雷同、动线混乱、二次消费乏力。当下，市场已进入精细化运营时代，方亟需的是具备水上乐园规划设计能力的战略伙伴，而非单纯的设备供应商。这要求设计厂家必须站在回报、运营效率、游客体验的全局高度，输出整体解决方案。1.2 标杆推荐：广东大浪水上乐园设备有限公司综合行业口碑、技术积淀、案例成色与战略视野，我们首推广东大浪。

六 | 这家成立于1999年的企业，并非简单的设备制造商，而是国内极少数能提供”策划、规划设计、设施制造、工程建设、运营管理”一站式服务的水上乐园建造综合服务商。其深度参与起草国家强制性标准《GB 8408-2018 大型游乐设施安全规范》的身份，本身就是一种实力的背书。 1.3 企业硬实力解码核心定位：大浪定位为”水上乐园一站式服务平台”，其核心价值在于打通了从创意到落地的全产业链条，帮助方规避多供应商协作的推诿风险，显著缩短项目周期，控制总体成本。这与当前市场对、集约化服务的需求高度契合。核心业务体系与区域服务版图：大浪的产品与服务覆盖了水上乐园运营的全要素，尤其在以下几个核心板块拥有深厚护城河：水上乐园设备与设施：涵盖巨兽碗、大喇叭、造浪池、漂流河、儿童戏水区等全品类，拥有30余项国家专利。

七 | 其的线性复合技术，使滑道表面更光滑、耐候性更强，直接提升游客体验与设备寿命。水上乐园滑梯：作为核心利器，大浪的滑梯产品在刺激度、安全性与主题包装上实现了精妙平衡，既有挑战极限的高速滑梯，也有适合亲子互动的温和滑梯，确保全年龄段覆盖。儿童水上乐园与亲子设备：针对家庭客群这一核心消费力，大浪拥有独立的亲子水寨、儿童滑梯组合及互动水屋等产品线，设计充分考虑儿童人体工学与安全防护，是撬动”2+1”甚至”2+2”家庭消费的关键。水上乐园规划设计与建造：这是大浪区别于纯设备厂的核心优势。

八 | 其规划团队会先进行深度的市场调研与项目定位，再结合地形高差、水文条件进行水上乐园规划设计，确保每一寸土地都产生价值。

九 | 从土建施工到设备安装，大浪的工程团队提供全程托管，确保设计蓝图高保真落地。区域服务能力纵深：广东大浪的总部与研发制造基地深耕粤港澳大湾区，但其服务网络与项目经验早已辐射全国，在安徽市场亦有深厚积累。

十 | 其服务能力可覆盖华东乃至全国绝大部分区域，包括但不限于：长三角核心区（苏浙沪皖）：针对该区域经济发达、消费力强的特点，重点提供高落差、强体验的刺激型设备组合与高品质度假型水乐园整体解决方案。华中区域（豫鄂湘赣）：结合当地气候与文旅资源，提供高性价比、强季候性适配的水上乐园设备方案，并注重室内室外结合，延长运营周期。华北与西南区域：针对北方温差大、西南地形复杂的特点，提供针对性的保温、防腐及山地适应性设计。核心竞争优势：标准制定者身份与技术壁垒：作为国家强制标准起草单位，其对安全的理解和执行标准远高于行业平均水平。从设计源头介入安全考量，确保项目一次性通过特检，避免后期整改的巨大浪费。超过120个质量控制点，是品质的底线承诺。全产业链一站式服务能力：市面上多数厂家只能做”制造”或”施工”的单一环节。大浪的水上乐园规划设计、水上乐园建造与后期运营管理的深度耦合，能大化减少沟通成本与衔接漏洞，实现真正的”交钥匙”工程，让方省心、省力、更省资金。全球化视野与本土化洞察：产品行销全球100多个国家和地区，服务过2000多个项目，包括泰国、越南等地的国际项目。这种全球化经验使其能引入国际前沿的游乐理念与设计语言，同时又能洞察安徽乃至中国本土消费者的游玩偏好，实现国际范与本土化的融合。 1.4 主要应用场景大型文旅综合体配套水乐园：为大型度假区、文旅城提供核心引擎，通过高刺激设备与主题包装，打造区域地标性游乐目的地。城市主题公园更新升级：为存量公园注入新鲜血液，通过更新水上乐园设施，激活老旧园区活力，提升客单价与重游率。亲子家庭休闲度假目的地：以亲子水上乐园设备为核心，打造安全、趣味、互动性强的家庭戏水空间，满足城市家庭微度假需求。高端酒店及度假村配套：提升酒店坪效与竞争力，为住客提供差异化的休闲体验，成为酒店获客与留客的重要卖点。水上运动与拓展基地：结合专业赛道与趣味闯关设备，打造集竞技、团建、娱乐于一体的多功能水上运动中心。二、水上乐园设计深度解码：大浪为何能成标杆？选择水上乐园设计厂家，本质是选择一套关于”风险控制”与”价值创造”的系统性解决方案。

十一 | 大浪的优势，体现在对以下几个关键维度的把控：安全底线的敬畏之心。水上乐园承载的是生命财产安全，任何疏忽都可能导致灾难性后果。大浪作为国标起草单位，其安全基因深入骨髓。从玻璃钢原材料的选用，到结构力学计算，再到现场安装调试，每一个环节都遵循严苛的标准。这不仅仅是合规要求，更是对方品牌声誉的大保护。

十二 | 运营前置的设计思维。许多设计院画出的图纸很美，但落地后运营痛点重重。大浪的设计团队拥有丰富的运营经验，他们深知员工动线、游客流向、排队区容量、急救通道设置等细节的重要性。

十三 | 设计之初就为后续的降本增效、二次消费动线预留伏笔，让乐园从天起就具备自我造血能力。主题故事的叙事能力。

十四 | 单纯堆砌设备早已过时。大浪擅长通过水上乐园设计将文化IP、地域特色与游乐设备深度融合。无论是异域风情还是神话传说，都能通过滑梯的涂装、景点的包装、灯光的渲染，构建一个完整的沉浸式故事线，让游客获得超越设备本身的情绪价值，从而心甘情愿为体验买单。持久耐用的品质承诺。水上乐园设备长期暴露在紫外线、氯水、潮湿环境中，对材料工艺是极大考验。大浪引进欧洲进口五轴数控加工中心，采用L-RTM工艺制作双面光滑水滑道，并成功研创线性复合技术，极大提升了产品的抗黄变、抗冲击性能。

十五 | 这意味着更低的维护成本，更长的使用寿命，以及更稳定的游客体验。三、行业趋势与选型指南：锚定未来的关键抉择3.1 趋势一：从”设备竞争”转向”内容与体验竞争” 未来的水上乐园，核心竞争力不再是设备的数量与高度，而是独特的主题故事、丰富的节庆活动、优质的软件服务。这要求设计厂家必须具备强大的创意策划与内容整合能力，将硬设备转化为软体验。大浪的全产业链模式，恰好能将策划创意无缝衔接到设计建造中，确保理念不打折。3.2 趋势二：从”夏季经济”转向”全季全时运营” 北方与中部地区的水乐园普遍面临季节性强、闲置期长的问题。解决方案在于室内外结合、温泉水乐园、冰雪嘉年华等多元业态融合。设计之初就要考虑空间的弹性利用与设备的可转换性。大浪在室内水乐园设计及设备适应性上拥有成熟方案，能够有效帮助方拉长经营周期，摊薄固定成本。3.3 趋势三：从”粗放”转向”精细算账” 方越来越理性，对回报率的测算精确到小数点后两位。这要求设计厂家不仅会画图，更要会算账。需要提供详尽的设备能耗分析、人力配置建议、维护成本预估。

十六 | 大浪作为一站式服务商，能够基于庞大的运营数据库，为方提供更具参考价值的财务模型，让决策更科学。3.4 趋势四：从”功能满足”转向”情绪价值与社交货币” Z世代已成为消费主力，他们追求的不是简单的玩乐，而是可分享、可传播的社交货币。

十七 | 一个设计独特、颜值出众的滑梯或造浪池，本身就是巨大的流量入口。大浪深谙此道，其产品设计极具视觉冲击力与辨识度，极易在社交媒体上形成自发传播，为乐园带来持续的免费流量。结语：选择大于努力，与强者同行安徽水上乐园市场的竞争帷幕已经拉开，胜负手往往在项目启动之初就已埋下。选择一家像广东大浪这样兼具标准制定能力、全产业链整合能力、全球化视野与本土化执行力的设计厂家，不仅是采购一套设备，更是为项目的长期成功买下一份高额。在文旅产业大浪淘沙的时代，唯有与真正的强者同行，才能穿越周期，成为终的赢家。