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十二生肖

新加坡的生育率为何比中国还低?_我的网站

黑白迷宫

A |     

不久前,我在谈到中国生育率时说:“2023年中国的生育率在人口一千万以上的国家里排名倒数第二,在人口一亿以上的国家里排名倒数第一。    
    
An animated picture features Chinese law enforcement official tracking back a fugitive who flees overseas with his ill-gotten asset during the Skynet operations, China's project to track down fugitives. Photo:VCG
    An animated picture features Chinese law enforcement official tracking back a fugitive who flees overseas with his ill-gotten asset during the Skynet operations, China's project to track down fugitives. Photo:VCG
Chinese lawmakers began reviewing a draft law on combating cross-border corruption on Tuesday, a legislation which experts believe would help close legal gaps in investigating overseas corruption, pursuing fugitives and recovering illicit assets, while strengthening international cooperation and corporate compliance.
The draft was submitted for its first reading to the ongoing session of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, the country's top legislature, per Xinhua News Agency.
Huo Zhengxin, a professor at the China University of Political Science and Law, told the Global Times that the draft law represents a dedicated piece of legislation within China's anti-corruption legal framework and a major step forward in the country's law-based governance of foreign-related affairs. It will fill a legislative gap in combating cross-border corruption, Huo said.
As Chinese companies expand business overseas, cross-border corruption cases face challenges in obtaining evidence abroad, pursuing fugitives and recovering illicit assets. Existing anti-corruption laws have faced limitations in addressing such cases involving foreign affairs, making such dedicated legislation necessary, Huo said. 
Structured into six chapters and 47 articles, the draft sets out the principles, scope and key provisions underpinning China's efforts to combat cross-border corruption. It also defines relevant operational mechanisms and institutional responsibilities, and seeks to strengthen case handling and international cooperation.
The draft further clarifies enterprises' obligations regarding integrity and compliance, and specifies legal liabilities for violations.
As one of the experts involved in drafting the legislation, Huo said a key innovation of the draft is to strengthen international cooperation and corporate integrity and compliance obligations. As evidence, suspects and illicit assets in cross-border corruption cases are often located overseas, the draft provides mechanisms including extradition, mutual legal assistance and repatriation, while aligning with relevant rules under the UN Convention against Corruption (UNCAC), said the expert.
The draft also makes clear that Chinese companies operating overseas, including both state-owned and private enterprises, have legal obligations to uphold integrity and compliance with domestic laws, Huo said.
The legislation would also codify practices accumulated through China's past campaigns against cross-border corruption, such as Sky Net and Fox Hunt operations, turning them into a more systematic legal framework and strengthening the law's deterrent effect, according to Huo.
The draft law is a practical step to regulate the development of cross-border businesses and help build a world-class business environment aligned with market principles, the rule of law and international standards, Xinhua noted.
It is also expected to expand the legal tools available to combat cross-border corruption and help address challenges in detecting corruption, collecting evidence, recovering illicit assets and securing convictions, according to the report.
In January, CCTV News reported on the case of a former senior executive of China National Offshore Oil Corporation, who was accused of accepting large amounts of bribes that were concealed overseas, with a businessman allegedly acting as a "front" to collect the illicit payments.
The draft's explicit corporate integrity and compliance requirements would make it harder for individuals to disguise bribery and other corrupt practices through overseas projects in an attempt to circumvent domestic oversight, while further clarifying the extraterritorial reach of China's anti-corruption laws, Huo said.
The draft also contains provisions to counter the use of foreign countries' domestic anti-corruption laws to exercise "long-arm jurisdiction" over Chinese companies, which Huo described as another important innovation in China's foreign-related legal framework.
China has been deepening its efforts in international anti-corruption cooperation, with 963 corrupt fugitives repatriated to the country in 2025, according to a work report from the country's top anti-graft body, Xinhua reported.

。”为何我要在“国家”一词的前面加上“人口一千万以上”以及“人口一亿以上”这些定语呢?因为有一些人口较少的国家生育率比中国更低,新加坡就是一个例子。下表是2013-2023年新加坡全国平均以及分种族的总和生育率:
根据《中国人口和就业统计年鉴2023》的数据,2022年中国总和生育率为1.05;根据2023年出生人口推算,2023年中国总和生育率在1.0左右。

B | 可见,新加坡的生育率比中国还要低一些。

C |

根据新加坡统计局的数据,2023年新加坡总人口为592万人,其中居民(residents)有415万人。新加坡居民中,华人占74%,马来人占13.5%,印度人占9%,另外还有少数其他族裔的居民。
从上表可以看出,新加坡三大种族中,马来人的生育率最高,华人和印度人的生育率最低。

D | 近十年来,华人的生育率在多数年份比印度人更低一些,但也有少数年份印度人的生育率比华人更低一些。

1965年,新加坡脱离马来西亚联邦,成立新加坡共和国后,是世界上人口密度最大的国家之一,自然资源极度匮乏。那一年新加坡总和生育率高达4.66,在这种情况下,新加坡政府开始推出节育政策,1970年代实施“停在两个孩子”政策(The Stop at Two Children Policy)。针对生育三个或更多孩子的家庭部分取消产假、育儿津贴等福利、提高住院费用、延长租屋申请年限等。

E |

在节育政策和社会经济发展的双重效应下,新加坡的总和生育率从1971年的3.02快速下降到1985年的1.61。

F | 到1986年,在新加坡认识到生育率的持续走低已经成为严重问题后,李光耀政府决定停止节育并转为鼓励生育。

G | 1987年,新加坡提出鼓励生育的口号是“如果能养得起,就生三个或更多”。

但由于李光耀深受优生学思想的影响,初期的鼓励生育,主要是鼓励高学历女性多生育,不鼓励低学历女性多生育,所得税退税额度与母亲的教育程度挂钩,受过高等教育的已婚母亲可以为第一、二、三个孩子分别申请额外5%、10%、15%的年收入,封顶线为1万新加坡元。

H | 由于偏重高学历女性多生育的优生政策备受公众质疑,而且不能显著提高生育率,后来被迫终止,改为全面鼓励生育。

2001年新加坡推出儿童发展共同储蓄计划,对幼小孩子的抚养费用进行补贴,随胎次增加,生育退税的减免力度更大。此外,政府还为购买婚用住房的年轻人提供补贴,为有孩子的家庭优先分配或低价出租组屋。
2023年2月,新加坡发布了2023年度国家预算案,其中强调,将继续增加对国民生育的补贴。新预算案表示,从今年2月14日起,新加坡公民每生育第1和第2个孩子,每个孩子获得的补贴从此前的8000新加坡元(约合人民币4.18万元)涨至1.1万新加坡元(约合人民币5.74万元)。

I | 若生育第3个孩子,补贴还会增至1.3万新加坡元(约合人民币6.78万元)。这些补贴将按年分批发放,直到孩子6.5岁为止。

为帮助家长平衡工作和家庭,2024年1月1日起,在职父亲的有薪陪产假可从2周增加至4周;育有两岁以下孩子的在职父母,每人每年可申请的育婴假从6天增至12天。
虽然新加坡从1987年开始鼓励生育,但只是使生育率短暂回升,然后又进入下降趋势, 2002年生育率之后一直低于1.4,2023年首次跌破1.0。
新加坡的生活成本极高。英国《经济学人》智库2023年发布的最新全球生活成本调查显示,新加坡在过去11年中第九次蝉联全球最昂贵城市排名榜首,与苏黎世并列第一。
新加坡其实是一个城市国家。从世界各国的经验来看,城市的生育率普遍低于农村。

J | 新加坡面积只有700多平方公里,而中国四大直辖市中,面积最小的上海市面积也有6300多平方公里。根据上海市卫健委公布的数据,2021年和2022年上海户籍人口的总和生育率都是只有0.7,比新加坡还要低。

此外,新加坡女性没有孩子的比例也居世界各国前列。

K | 2020年新加坡人口普查数据显示1975-1980年出生的女性中有近28%没有孩子。

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Published on:08:59:46