律政英雄

‘Overcapacity’ claim groundless as China’s green tech fuels global growth: Tian Xuan_我的网站

A |     为持续深化责任彩票建设，切实提升辖区居民风险防范意识，引导群众树立理性购彩观念，7月23日，杨浦区体育彩票服务管理中心走进四平路街道，以“木兰拳展演”为依托，统筹联动多方职能力量，集中开展“反诈宣传暨理性购彩”主题公益宣讲活动，将安全防护知识与责任彩票理念精准送达基层群众身边。 　　本次活动对标市体彩中心安心购彩守护行动工作部署，对接四平路街道社区文化活动中心，依托基层治理优势，面向辖区居民开展常态化科普宣讲。    

    Tian Xuan Photo: Courtesy of Tian
In economic theory, "overcapacity" - for which no universally accepted definition exists - is inherently a recurring feature of the market economy's dynamic "balance - imbalance - rebalance" cycle. The Western narrative that equates China's sizable production capacity directly with "overcapacity" defies economic logic and rigor; in reality, it represents a politicization of trade and economic issues.
First, it confuses the concepts of "capacity scale" and "overcapacity." China's overall industrial capacity utilization remains within a reasonable range. Periodically lower utilization in traditional sectors reflects a normal adjustment as these industries advance toward high-end, intelligent, and green production. Ample capacity in certain emerging industries is precisely what meets surging global demand for high-end, smart, and green solutions. Therefore, equating scale with excess is typical equivocation.
Second, "overcapacity" itself is a dynamic feature of market economies, where no fixed balance persists indefinitely. Judging capacity based solely on static snapshots violates basic economic principles.
Third, it is erroneous to simplistically link trade surpluses or industrial subsidies to overcapacity, while ignoring the macro context of global specialization and cross-border savings-investment structures. It also disregards the reality that reasonable capacity utilization ranges differ across economies at varying stages of development. Imposing a single standard on China is neither scientific nor rigorous.
China's global competitiveness in green technology stems from sustained, large-scale investment in innovation, a comprehensive industrial and supply chain system, massive application scenarios, and intense market competition - not from alleged government subsidies. After decades of long-cycle R&D, Chinese industries have achieved breakthroughs in core technologies such as power batteries and photovoltaic modules.
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25), China's nationwide R&D spending grew at an average annual rate of 10 percent. Economies of scale have continuously diluted production costs. China's ultra-large domestic market and full-chain supporting ecosystem provide an optimal testing ground for new technologies - from pilot verification to mass deployment. With more than 200 million market entities driving fierce competition, enterprises are constantly compelled to cut costs, raise efficiency, and upgrade products, thereby forging dual advantages in price and performance that we see today.
There is no direct causation between subsidies and overcapacity. Industrial subsidies are a globally recognized practice, typically aimed at correcting market failures and advancing critical technologies. China's subsidies are granted on an impartial basis to all types of market entities, in full compliance with WTO rules, and have not triggered disorderly capacity expansion.
Currently, capacity utilization in China's green industries remains within a reasonable range. Support is primarily directed toward R&D, technological breakthroughs, and consumer-side incentives through market-based mechanisms - not toward fueling overcapacity. Crucially, China's high-quality capacity has reduced the global cost of green transition, representing an opportunity rather than a shock to world development.
Against the backdrop of global carbon neutrality goals, labeling China's new energy capacity as "overcapacity" is entirely untenable. According to the International Energy Agency, global data center electricity consumption will approach 1 trillion kWh by 2030, with 40 percent of incremental power needing to come from renewables. Demand for wind power, photovoltaics, power batteries, and related green energy solutions remains far from saturated - so claims of "overcapacity" are groundless.
China's capacity plays a central role in advancing the global energy transition. Over the past decade, the levelized cost of electricity from wind and solar globally has fallen by more than 60 percent and 80 percent respectively - improvements largely attributable to Chinese innovation and manufacturing, which have directly lowered the cost threshold for worldwide green transformation.
The US journal Science crowned the global renewable energy surge led by China among its Top 10 Breakthroughs of 2025. Leveraging its technological and scale advantages, China is well positioned to supply abundant, high-quality green energy equipment and solutions, meet fast-growing renewable demand from data centers, industrial production, and other sectors, and tangibly support countries in implementing the Paris Agreement. In short, China is a pivotal force driving the global low-carbon transition.
The so-called "China Shock 2.0" is fundamentally a protectionist narrative rooted in Cold War thinking - a politically motivated claim inconsistent with facts. The rapid development of China's modern industries is driven by innovation and sustained institutional reform, not by dumping allegedly excess capacity abroad. Rather than posing a shock, China's industrial progress offers a "China Opportunity 2.0." It delivers multiple dividends to global development - innovation dividends, market dividends, and growth dividends - while injecting stability and vitality into global industrial chains through an open and win-win approach.
China's high-quality green and high-tech exports have tangibly accelerated the global green transition and reduced production costs worldwide. Meanwhile, as the world's largest goods consumption market and the second-largest importer for 17 consecutive years, China provides enormous market opportunities for economies around the globe. Moreover, China's open-source collaboration and technology sharing in frontier fields such as artificial intelligence and the digital economy enable developing countries to bridge the digital divide at lower cost and share in the benefits of the technological revolution.
The facts demonstrate that China's emerging technologies and products represent a "China Opportunity 2.0" - driving global technological progress, accelerating the green transition, improving livelihoods across nations, and bolstering the industrialization of developing economies. This open and mutually beneficial cooperation stands as the true engine of global economic recovery and sustainable development. 
This article is compiled based on an interview with Tian Xuan, dean at the Guanghua School of Management and Boya Distinguished Professor of Finance of Peking University. [email protected]

。活动现场，杨浦区体彩部门联合区公安分局反诈专班、交通银行吉浦路支行、区反邪教协会组建专项联合宣传队伍，采用“集中宣讲+分散互动”的形式，多维度普及反诈、反邪教知识与理性购彩理念。　　杨浦体彩详细解读体育彩票的公益属性，倡导购彩群众量力而行、理性投注，提醒大家认清“大额购彩稳赚不赔”等错误思想，自觉远离非法博彩陷阱。　　反诈民警结合真实案例，拆解电信网络诈骗常见手段，讲解识别方法与防范技巧，重点针对中老年群体，提醒其警惕虚假投资理财、冒充客服退款、刷单返利等高发骗局，守好个人“钱袋子”。　　交通银行金融专员从“养老服务投资”“养老项目分红”“虚假高息理财”等专门面向老年群体的非法集资骗局展开拆解，提醒居民牢牢树立“高收益必然伴随高风险”的认知底线，坚决抵制“天上掉馅饼”的虚假诱惑。
　　现场居民纷纷驻足交流，表示此次活动厘清了认知误区，后续将自觉践行理性购彩理念，时刻绷紧反诈防骗这根弦。　　下一步，杨浦区体彩部门将持续推进“公益体彩进社区”系列宣传行动，优先筛选人口集中、基层治理基础扎实的大型社区，常态化联动公安、金融、街道等多方主体开展联合公益宣传，不断延伸责任宣传的覆盖触角，持续夯实基层反诈防护屏障，积极营造“理性购彩、防范诈骗”的良好社区氛围，以扎实举措践行国家体育彩票的公益属性与社会责任。

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Published on:05:19:22