用号称“工业母机”的高端机床卡中国脖子？日本的“自戕式豪赌”注定失败。

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    A Chinese J-16 fighter Photo: VCGChinese state media on Monday released footage from the first day of flight training held Saturday during the China-Egypt Eagles of Civilization 2026 joint training exercise, showing PLA J-16s engaging in air combat drills against Egyptian MiG-29 and Rafale fighters. A Chinese expert said this is the first joint exercise featuring both the J-16 and the Rafale, reflecting strong mutual trust and a high level of coordination between the two air forces.
The first day's training focused on one-on-one air combat between different aircraft types. As fighters from both air forces took off in succession, pilots engaged in intense confrontations under realistic combat scenarios, the CCTV News military channel reported.
Before the flight training, Chinese and Egyptian pilots delivered briefings on their respective aircraft capabilities. The two sides then held in-depth discussions on the exercise subjects, clarifying flight safety rules, airspace regulations, takeoff and landing procedures and emergency response plans, said the report.
"The China-Egypt joint air training is progressing from basic one-on-one and two-on-two air combat to more systematic joint operations. As mutual understanding between pilots grows, they can more effectively exchange tactical concepts and operational techniques, which helps enhance the technical and tactical proficiency of both sides," Shen Hao, a member of a PLA Air Force unit, was quoted as saying by the PLA Air Force in a press release on Monday.
Egypt's Ministry of Defense spokesperson posted on social media platform X on Saturday that the joint training between China and Egypt had commenced, releasing images of the participating aircraft - Egypt's MiG-29 and Rafale fighters, and China's J-16 fighter.
    An Egyptian MiG-29 fighter (above) and a Rafale fighter Photo: X account of Egypt's Ministry of Defense spokesperson CCTV footage on Monday also showed the three aircraft types in action.
Wang Yanan, editor-in-chief of the Beijing-based Aerospace Knowledge magazine, told the Global Times on Monday that this joint exercise marks the first time China has deployed the J-16 and the first time Egypt's Rafale fighters have participated, a development worth noting. It reflects a relatively high level of mutual trust between the two militaries and a substantial standard of joint training.
Apart from the French military, India and Egypt are some of its main users. This presents a rare opportunity for China to gain familiarity with the Rafale in a joint training setting. As a flagship product of Dassault Aviation, the Rafale represents a major design philosophy of advanced European aerospace equipment, Wang said.
Although the J-16, deployed by China for this long-range training mission in Egypt, evolved from the original Soviet-era platform, it has been completely transformed and now plays a key role within China's aviation system. Capable of carrying a variety of munitions, it can perform electronic warfare, ground strikes and long-range air-to-air combat, making it a highly versatile platform, Wang explained.
Song Zhongping, a Chinese military affairs expert, told the Global Times previously that the J-16 heavy fighter jets' first participation in the China-Egypt joint air force training exercise marks an upgrade from 2025's deployment of medium-sized J-10Cs in the drill, reflecting broader and more advanced overseas training by the PLA Air Force.
The two aircraft belong to the same generation, but the Rafale's overall combat capabilities may not be as comprehensive as those of the J-16, which has been continuously upgraded as part of China's aviation system development, Wang said.
Wang noted that the main objectives are to enhance mutual trust and familiarity with each other's equipment, understanding flight performance, medium- and close-range maneuverability and basic weapon configurations.
Moreover, as the Rafale is also deployed in countries neighboring China, understanding its performance characteristics through joint training holds practical significance for the country, Wang added.
"The Egyptian pilots' rigorous training discipline, close coordination and solid technical skills left a deep impression on us. Through mutual learning and close exchanges during the exercise, we not only strengthened our bonds but also improved our technical and tactical capabilities together. Joint training with foreign forces has provided a valuable platform for our pilots to sharpen their skills," Ning Yiming, a member of a PLA Air Force unit, was quoted by the PLA Air Force as saying.
The opening ceremony of the joint training was held on Friday. Commanders from both sides delivered speeches, reviewing the history of air force exchanges between the two countries and the achievements of the first joint exercise in 2025. They outlined the objectives of this year's training and expressed hopes that participating personnel would seize the opportunity to learn from each other, build mutual trust and carry forward their traditional friendship, PLA Air Force said.
。近日，日本新修订的《输出贸易管理令》正式生效。这意味着，一些精密机床对华出口从批量许可变为“一事一议”，审批周期最长可能被拉至半年，尤其是在航空航天、军工、半导体等重点行业，被驳回率可能将超过80%。日本指望打出“机床牌”卡住中国脖子，换取稀土供应等谈判筹码，同时也向美国对华遏制战略递上“投名状”。

C | 然而，这注定是一场“自损一千”的战略妄想。一方面，中国市场是日本机床企业最重要的盈利来源，占其海外出口总额约32%。据《日本经济新闻》报道，日本国内机床订单额自2023年开始已连续3年下滑。

D | 在这样的背景下，强行断供中国订单，对日本机床企业无异于“自残”。另一方面，中国高端机床早已不是白纸一张，而是正处在从“助跑”到“腾飞”的临界点。在中低端市场，国产替代早已铺开；在高端领域，一批企业也在加速突围。今年1月，德国机床制造商协会发布的数据显示，中国机床出口超过德国首次跃居全球首位。

E | 该协会称，中国占全球机床出口业务的份额为21.6%，而德国降到了16.7%。当然，相比国际尖端水平，中国高端机床的现实差距也必须正视。过去，国内企业习惯了“造不如买”，这不仅将国内市场让给了外方，也让国产设备缺少大规模试错验证、积累经验的机会。如今，当下游用户别无选择，国产设备将迎来一场证明自己的“大考”。短期阵痛可能无法避免，但长期看，这必将倒逼国产供应链完成升级。

F | 历史反复证明，中国这么大市场，“卡脖子”卡不住中国。任何试图通过技术封锁遏制中国发展的企图，最终都是倒逼中国完成自主可控，最终只会失去中国市场。病急乱投医，日方不反思自身的病灶，反而在错误道路上狂飙突进，其结果早已注定。